Sentiment among businesses in India for the next 12 months is the lowest for six years and most firms predict their profits will not rise in that time, according to new research. Markit Economics Research began asking businesses to assess their outlook for the year ahead in 2009 and since then, Indian firms have not registered as depressed a forecast for business activity as they have done in 2015. Researchers measure the balance of positive sentiment among companies once the negative feelings have been taken into account. In India’s case, this left a balance of only 22% of companies in manufacturing and services who predicted business activity would increase in the coming year.
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This compares to a balance of 59% positive outlook in the U. and puts India below China and the U. The data, collected between June 12 and June 26 this year, is based on a survey of around 11,000 manufacturers and service providers in 17 countries.
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The results are bad news for Narendra Modi’s government that came to power on a promise to help businesses to operate more easily in the country and come despite positive economic figures. But there is some good news too. More In Narendra Modi. In a broader global context and on other measures apart from business activity, findings suggest that India isn’t doing too badly compared with those in its class.
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For example, a balance of 22% of Indian businesses surveyed said profits would likely go up in the year ahead, compared with a remainder of 21% of Russian firms and 14% of Chinese firms. When it came to expectations for increasing employment, Indian companies’ aspirations were higher than Russia, China and Brazil, with 8% net positive on this measure.
However, firms in India thought the cost of doing business would be higher than the returns. Input prices, a measure of the cost of materials or other overheads, are likely to go up, most said. Although output prices—a yardstick for how much a product will sell for—are also likely to rise, the majority thought.
This left India in fourth place for both measures. “Anecdotal evidence suggests that optimism mainly reflects increased marketing, favorable government policies and company expansion plans,” the U. -based research group said in its report. “Nevertheless, competitive pressures, raw material shortages, increased tax rates and strong inflation are seen as threats to the outlook.
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